UPDATE: 2025-07-19 08:02 EST BY BRENNAN KLEIN

Fantastic Four Cements Its Brutal 66% Drop

This article was originally written Saturday AM and has been updated Sunday AM with up-to-date box office projections (in bold), a full chart, and further analysis.

The Fantastic Four: First Stepsis continuing to dominate the box office, but it has taken a steep tumble nevertheless. The superhero movie, which introduces the titular quartet to the Marvel Cinematic Universe, debuted on July 25 with a $117.6 million domestic opening weekend that was the franchise’s best of the year.

Pedro Pascal’s Reed Richards looking scared in a space suit in The Fantastic Four: First Steps as he looks up

The sophomore weekend of theFantastic Four: First Stepsrelease sees it being joined in theaters by multiple major new releases, including theLiam Neeson comedy legacy sequelThe Naked Gunand DreamWorks' animated heist comedy sequelThe Bad Guys 2.

PerVariety, as of Sunday morning,The Fantastic Four: First Stepsis projected to conclude its sophomore weekend with a 3-day total of$40 millionat the domestic box office. While this sees the movie dropping a rough66%, more than the anticipated 55 to 60%, it is still more than enough for it to hitNo. 1 on the chart for the second weekend in a row.

Liam Neeson in a deep split holding a gun and a badge in the new Naked Gun

Both new releases are trailing behind the superhero movie, withThe Bad Guys 2set to debut at No. 2 with$22.8 millionandThe Naked Gunexpected to debut at No. 3 after taking in$17 million.

TheBad Guyssequelnearly matched the original’s $23.9 million debut. While this is not necessarily a good sign, because the earlier installment came out in a still pandemic-depressed period in 2022, both have the same reported budget ($80 million), so the sequel could be track to turn a profit if it can keep the same momentum.

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Meanwhile,The Naked Gunis set to earnthe best opening weekend for a Neeson-led movie in a decade, since 2015’sTaken 3($39.2 million). See the full domestic Top 5 chart for the weekend below:

1

$40 million

$198 million (weekend 2)

2

$22.8 million

$22.8 million (weekend 1)

3

$17 million

$17 million (weekend 1)

4

$13.9 million

$316.2 million (weekend 4)

5

$8.4 million

$317 million (weekend 5)

With two new titles taking up the Top 3, the previous weekend’s No. 2 movie,James Gunn’sSuperman, fell to No. 4 with a 44% drop.Jurassic World Rebirthhad a similar trajectory, falling from No. 3 to No. 5 with a 36% drop.

Those incoming titles have also knocked two of the previous weekend’s Top 5 out of the running completely. The No. 4 and No. 5 releasesF1 The MovieandSmurfshave now landed at No. 7 and No. 9respectively.

The movie preventingF1from hitting No. 6 is the new release horror movieTogether, which is taking that spot with a 3-day total of $6.8 million and a $10.8 million cumulative total that makes itone of just nine movies distributed by Neon to have ever hit the $10 million domestic milestone.

What This Means For The Fantastic Four: First Steps

While the week 2 drop of2025’sThe Fantastic Four: First Stepsis less severe than Marvel’s earlier 2025 outingCaptain America: Brave New World(-68%), it isfar worse than their follow-up 2025 titleThunderbolts*(-56%).

A drop this severe does not necessarily mean that the movie will fail to be a success, as the billion-dollar MCU titleSpider-Man: No Way Homehad an even worse drop, falling 67.5%. However, it had an advantage overFantastic Fourbecauseits 3-day debut of $260.1 million was substantially higher, giving it a loftier perch from which to fall.

However,bothBrave New WorldandThunderboltsunderperformedcompared to their reported $180 million budgets. WhileFantastic Fourhad a better opening weekend than either of those previousMCU movies(Captain Americaopened with $88.8 million whileThunderboltsearned $74.3 million), it also comes with a bigger reported budget of more than $200 million, which could complicate its prospects.

Thebudget ofThe Fantastic Four: First Stepscould place its theatrical break-even point as high as $500 million. While it is still more than capable of reaching that total by the end of its run,the margin by which it will be able to turn a profit is now looking slimmerthan it did during the movie’s opening weekend.

Our Take On The Weekend Box Office

While it was more or less a given thatThe Fantastic Four: First Stepswould top the chart during its second weekend, the fact that the two competing new releases had strong debuts for mid-level titles shows thatsimilar upcoming movies could potentially topple the superhero project earlier than anticipatedduring a relatively quiet August.

At first, it didn’t necessarily seem likeFreakier Friday(out August 8) orNobody 2(due August 15) would have the strength to outgrossThe Fantastic Four: First Steps. However, it seems probable that it will fall to No. 2 soon, especially withBox Office Theoryprojecting aFreakier Fridaydebut between $30 and $45 million.