UPDATE: 2025-06-06 07:56 EST BY BRENNAN KLEIN
Ballerina Falls Slightly Below Saturday’s $25.5-$27.5 Million Range
This article was originally written Saturday AM and has been updated Sunday AM with up-to-date box office projections (in bold), a full chart, and further analysis.
Lilo & Stitchcontinues to triumph at the box office in spite of competition fromFrom the World of John Wick: Ballerina. TheBallerinareleasekicked off during the first weekend of June, with the Ana de Armas-ledJohn Wickspinoff arriving one week afterKarate Kid: Legendsand two weeks after the Memorial Day tentpolesMission: Impossible - The Final ReckoningandLilo & Stitch. The latter, which is Disney’s live-action remake of their 2002 animated hit, broke the record for the biggest Memorial Day weekend debut in history and has quickly zoomed past a worldwide gross of $600 million.
PerDeadline, as of Sunday morning,From the World of John Wick: Ballerinais expected to earn a 3-day domestic gross of$25 millionby the end of its opening weekend,falling behind its earlier projections of $28 million. However, this is still enough for it to take No. 2 on the domestic chart, though it was unable to toppleLilo & Stitch, which takes No. 1 for the third consecutive weekend with a projected total of$32.5 million. See the full domestic Top 5 chart for the weekend below:
1
$32.5 million
$335.7 million (weekend 3)
2
$25 million
$25 million (weekend 1)
3
$15 million
$149 million (weekend 3)
4
$8.7 million
$35.4 million (weekend 2)
5
$6.4 million
$123 million (weekend 4)
After holding its own againstKarate Kid: Legendsduring its sophomore weekend,Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoninghas relinquished its perch at No. 2toBallerina, slipping down the chart with a week-on-week drop of 45% during its third weekend. This in turn, has pushedKarate Kid: Legendsfrom No. 3 to No. 4 with a harsh 58% drop whileFinal Destination Bloodlinesshowed stronger legs in its fourth weekend with a roughly 40% drop that sees it drawing ever closer to the $250 million worldwide milestone, which it could very well hit before the beginning of its fifth weekend.
With only one new movie joining the chart during the first weekend of June, there is just a single departure from the Top 5. That title would be the newA24 horror movieBring Her Back, which stars Sally Hawkins and was helmed byTalk to Me’s Danny and Michael Philippou.It fell from No. 5 to No. 7 with a 3-day total of $3.5 millionrepresenting a week-on-week drop of 51%, which is not bad for a horror movie, but significantly worse thanTalk to Me’s 39.4% drop during its own sophomore weekend.
Talk to Me, which had a debut weekend of $10.4 million compared toBring Her Back’s $7.2 million, eventually grossed $91.9 million worldwide, becoming A24’s third highest-grossing movie in history.
The reason thatBring Her Backfell two spots instead of one is the fact thatthe new Wes Anderson movieThe Phoenician Schemehas risen to No. 6 during its wide expansion, grossing $6.25 million in 1,678 theaters, marking a week-on-week rise of 1015%. The movie has now hit a cumulative domestic total of $7 million, which sees it drawing closer to surpassing the $11.9 million domestic gross of Anderson’sThe Darjeeling Limited, at which point it will begin its climb up the director’s chart for domestic performance.
It May Not Turn A Profit
This opening weekend will seeBallerinapremiering with the second worst 3-day domestic debut of all fiveJohn Wickmovies, behind the original 2014 installment, which was an unknown quantity at the time and only debuted with $14.4 million before becoming an $86 million hit. While this is not unexpected given the fact that it is a spinoff rather than a direct continuation,Ballerinaends the franchise’s trend of each new movie debuting with roughly $20 million more than the previous installment. Below, see a breakdown of the box office performance of the previous four installments in the action franchise:
$14.4 million
$86 million
$30.4 million
$174.3 million
$56.8 million
$328.3 million
$73.8 million
$440.2 million
While the reportedbudget ofBallerinais roughly $90 million, making it the second most costlyJohn Wickmovie behindChapter 4, Lionsgate typically covers the costs of their releases with international presales. However, if the new installment follows the precedent set by the previous movies, which all had worldwide multipliers of just under 6, it may only earn between $145 and $165 million by the end of its run.That worldwide total would make it the second lowest-grossing installment of the franchise, falling just behindChapter 2’s worldwide gross of $174.3 million.
Lilo & Stitch Needs A Proper Challenge
WhileLilo & Stitchis a runaway hit, in order for the summer movie season of 2025 to truly succeed, it can’t be propped up by a single title.Stitchneeds to be met with a proper challenger sooner than later, as neitherKarate Kid: LegendsnorFrom the World of John Wick: Ballerinahas proven to be an overly strong performer. This need may be met soon, as thelive-actionHow to Train Your Dragonpremieres on June 13 and could capture much of the same nostalgic audience asStitch, making it the second major hit of the summer.
